Die Zeitgeist: Global Financial Risk, Safe Havens and Defensive Strategies
London, UK - 6th October 2011, 11:00 GMT
Dear ATCA Open & Philanthropia Friends
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
We are very sorry to note the passing away of Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple. Requiescat in pace. What an inspirational innovator and inventor!
We would like to thank each one of the ATCA 5000 distinguished members who took part in the 10th anniversary Socratic dialogue on 5th October in Canary Wharf, London. It was heartening to see distinguished colleagues from:
. Government agencies;
. Sovereign wealth funds;
. Renewable energy and the sphere of Sustainability;
. Trans-national business and industry;
. Venture capital providers;
. Financial institutions -- banks, re/insurance groups and pension funds;
. Innovation, technology and media players;
. Scenario planners, think tanks and excellence-in-academia;
. Non-governmental and philanthropic organisations;
. Professional services -- accountancy and law firms; and
. Shadow banking players -- hedge funds and investment banks;
come together in harmony to exchange thoughts, observations and views on critical matters that we now face jointly as a global civilisation. The multi-dimensional perspective which emerged in regard to "Global financial risk, safe havens and defensive strategies" was inspirational in many ways. It provided a rich kaleidoscope of views that encapsulates the spirit of our times: Die Zeitgeist. In a moment, you will be able to witness a selection of some of the key outcomes of that special Socratic dialogue.
Die Zeitgeist: The spirit of our times
Thanks, Apologies and Next Events
We are conscious that some distinguished members came all the way from Stockholm and Moscow as well as Geneva and Mumbai to attend the exclusive ATCA 5000 event. Thank you for doing so! We have been unable to accommodate all distinguished members who wished to attend the 10th anniversary event because of limited places. We apologise. Given the demand, please note that the follow on 10th anniversary events of the ATCA 5000 will be held on 12th October and 19th October respectively in Canary Wharf, London, between 6:00pm and 8:00pm. If you wish to take part, please get in touch with firstname.lastname@example.org and the ATCA team will get back to you with availability and options.
Die Stimmung: The Mood, Tone and Atmosphere
Distinguished members were asked to present their views on the global financial markets in one single word. The key words:
. Back and forth
. Up and down
. On the brink
Inflation, Deflation or Stagflation?
Distinguished members were asked to vote on four potential scenarios in two years time:
1. Inflation = 17.5%
2. Deflation = 17.5%
3. Stagflation = 15%
4. Not sure = 22.5%
5. No vote = 27.5%
Does a "Safe Haven" exist or is it an illusion?
Distinguished members were invited to present their view on their preferred "Safe Haven" in one word:
. Swiss Franc
. Chinese sovereign debt
. Fine art
. Pound Sterling
. Renewable energy
. Education and networks
. Expensive land
. Old master paintings
. Oil and gas
. Bicycle and beans
. US dollar
The Eurozone: The Epicentre of Financial Uncertainty
Distinguished members were asked to vote on the following critical Eurozone issues:
1. Will the Eurozone survive in some form in two years time?
Yes = 50%
No = 10%
Not sure = 40%
2. Will Greece be a part of the Eurozone in two years time?
Yes = 20%
No = 45%
Not sure = 35%
3. Will Germany leave the Eurozone within two years?
Yes = 15%
No = 47.5%
Not sure = 37.5%
The 10th anniversary Socratic dialogue of the ATCA 5000 concluded on the basis that multiple scenarios are in simultaneous play and it is very difficult to determine the precise outcomes in the short, medium and long term, particularly because of the unknown unknowns. As black swans and low probability high impact events continue to unfold and cascade to create intricate chain reactions, it is only possible to assign probabilities to different scenarios and very difficult to work out precise outcomes. Fundamentals ought to prevail in the end but the consequences of those fundamentals on geo-strategic and socio-economic developments around the world remain largely unknown and unquantifiable. Where evident, as in Japan in the 1990s, the consequences of debt deleveraging are far from benign. In the globally intertwined political-economy, there is no politics without economics and no economics without politics. The two grand complexities are closely coupled and can lead to irrational and totally unpredictable turbulences: they have done so in the past and may do so again in the future. The 1930s is a prime example including the Creditanstalt event in 1931 and all the havoc that it partially unleashed by 1939 that led to the loss of more than 50 million lives in the ensuing six years. In these extremely volatile times, some semblance of defence lies in cash-generative safe havens because in an illiquid market it may become extremely difficult to sell assets at a fair price.
Key Outcome: Fasten your seat belts, there is great turbulence ahead!
Before we proceed to publish the agenda for the ATCA 5000 event on 12th October, do you have any thoughts, observation and views that we ought to take into account?
We are celebrating ten successful years since the formation of ATCA 5000 in October 2001. The next private event will be held on 12th October between 6:00pm and 8:00pm at an exclusive “members only” private club in Canary Wharf, London. We will most probably repeat the ATCA 5000 event at the same time on 19th October.
We are grateful to you for your response to the email@example.com in regard to 12th October or 19th October. Thank you.
Expert roundtables are the newly launched ATCA 24/7 Q&A private exclusive club service. They seek to become the killer application in strategic intelligence by delivering an unprecedented competitive advantage to our distinguished members. They can only be accessed online at https://www.yammer.com/atca
Q1: How to become a privileged member of ATCA 24/7 to participate in the expert roundtables?
A1: i. If you are a distinguished member of ATCA 5000, ATCA Open, The Philanthropia or HQR affiliated groups you may be allowed to become a privileged member of this new and exclusive private club.
ii. If you are pre-invited, visit the private intelligence network -- PIN -- by going to https://www.yammer.com/atca [Note: In https:// 's' is for security and encryption]
iii. If you don't have membership of the PIN yet, email the mi2g Intelligence Unit at intelligence.unit at mi2g dot com for an exclusive invitation.
Q2: How to participate in the expert roundtables and get domain-specific strategic intelligence questions answered?
A2: Access the ATCA 24/7 Private Intelligence Network -- PIN -- online and ask or answer a strategic intelligence question, no matter how complex. Receive expert answers within 24 hours or get pointers from:
i. ATCA 5000 experts who are online;
ii. ATCA Research and Analysis Wing; and
iii. mi2g Intelligence Unit.
Q3: Why is the ATCA 24/7 Q&A Exclusive Club special?
A3: ATCA 24/7 has now created an exclusive private intelligence watering hole and expert roundtable at the highest level where interesting and sophisticated questions are being asked from around the world, and intelligent answers are being provided, almost always by experts who have deep domain-specific knowledge. Come and check out the exclusive club, take it for a strategic test drive, which sign-of-intelligent life are you waiting for?
To learn more about "The Expert Roundtable: ATCA 24/7 Q&A Club" email: intelligence.unit at mi2g.com and if you are already a member visit https://www.yammer.com/atca
We welcome your thoughts, observations and views. To reflect further on this subject and others, please respond within Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn's ATCA Open and related discussion platform of HQR. Should you wish to connect directly with real time Twitter feeds, please click as appropriate:
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