11th Hour Arrives: Extreme Eurozone Disruption? Peril Threatens Financial Globalisation?
London, UK - 28th November 2011, 10:10 GMT
Dear ATCA Open & Philanthropia Friends
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
1. The crisis in the Eurozone has reached fever pitch as all the alarm signals have gone on red alert in the bond markets;
2. Italian bond yields at a record of nearly 8% coupled with German bund yields above those of the US and the UK, suggest that the entire core of the Eurozone is now infected;
3. Germany appears to have been hoist with its own petard by delaying the much needed rescue of Eurozone peripherals which ought to have occurred months ago;
11th Hour Arrives: Extreme Eurozone Disruption?
4. The capacity to resolve this crisis easily existed but the amount of funds now required are no longer going to be a few trillion euros but actually much more because the crisis has been left too late;
5. The crisis has now spread to the 3rd and 4th largest economies in the Eurozone -- Italy and Spain -- as it begins to enter a yet more dangerous phase by infecting the 2nd largest and largest economies in the Eurozone, namely, France and Germany;
6. Flight of capital from Eurozone financial institutions in tens of billions of euros per infected country is gathering momentum further jeopardising bank liquidity as well as sovereign and corporate access to capital markets;
7. The failure to address the Eurozone crisis head-on is going to cost dearly and it will have an unprecedented impact on business confidence and the global financial markets;
8. This crisis left unchecked will be Europe's Lehman Brothers moment, and if so, it will dwarf the events of September 2008 which were a snow storm in comparison to the coming avalanche;
9. For the contagion to be arrested, it would require that an 11th hour rescue is mounted by the ECB (aka Germany) with the IMF (aka USA) by carrying out a massive multi-trillion euro rescue of the Eurozone sovereigns;
10. Otherwise, the consequences for the world economy and the global financial markets could be too disruptive to contemplate; and
11. We may yet discover that the world does not have enough resources to decelerate the financial nuclear chain reaction which has been started in the Eurozone, largely in part due to the continued hesitation and obfuscation of the European leadership.
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